Five key factors to keep an eye on at the F1 United States Grand Prix

Is Mercedes the favorite for victory?

Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes

Realistically, the only scenario in which Antonelli can become world champion this weekend is by winning the United States Grand Prix while Russell finishes in ninth place. If this had occurred earlier in 2026, when Mercedes dominated the opening six rounds from pole, it would have seemed very likely—but not now, largely due to Red Bull's resurgence.

The Austrian team began the season sluggishly with two podiums in the first six races, but they responded with a series of relentless upgrades, with perhaps the most pivotal coming in Baku last month.

That weekend, Max Verstappen finished second, closely trailing Russell, before moving to Sepang—a track with entirely different characteristics—to claim his first win of 2026. The four-time world champion then followed up with victories in both the Singapore sprint and grand prix during the last outing.

Thus, Verstappen has not only won the last three races from pole position but has also been on the podium in seven of the last eight grands prix, showing a late-season resurgence reminiscent of the previous year. This has led many within the paddock to label the RB22 as the ‘class of the field,’ meaning Red Bull arguably enters Austin as the favorite for victory.

If Verstappen secures the win, it would mark his fifth victory at the United States GP, all achieved over the past six editions.

McLaren seeks to reverse decline with Austin upgrades

Oscar Piastri, McLaren, Lando Norris, McLaren

One team feeling the impact of Red Bull’s resurgence is undoubtedly McLaren, which has shifted from being Mercedes’ closest competitor to now being the fourth-best team within a few months. The Woking squad celebrated back-to-back victories in Budapest and Zandvoort thanks to Lando Norris, who would have made it three wins in four races in Madrid had it not been for an unfortunate virtual safety car.

However, since then, McLaren has struggled, failing to reach the podium in the three subsequent races—during the Azerbaijan-Malaysia-Singapore triple-header—and now finds itself in a battle to maintain third place, holding only a seven-point buffer over Red Bull.

This is despite the reigning champions introducing an upgraded MCL40 in Malaysia, which seemingly functioned as intended, but McLaren was simply outpaced by its competitors. This weekend may bring a shift as the British team is introducing another set of upgrades focused primarily on the front of the car.

"We’re bringing a modest array of upgrades for this event, aimed at enhancing some braking reliability and performance issues," stated chief designer Rob Marshall.

"We also have some minor floor modifications to test. We’ve all witnessed how challenging it has been to predict the relative performance of the top teams over the past five or six races. Clearly, numerous factors are at play here: car upgrades, track suitability, and driver preferences, among others.

"The last few races haven’t been ideal for us, but I believe we’re improving again, and Austin should be a more favorable circuit for our car."

The incident between Norris and teammate Oscar Piastri during the Singapore sprint may also resurface this weekend, although McLaren appears to have resolved the issue.

Driver market updates for 2027

Liam Lawson, Racing Bulls

Since the Singapore Grand Prix, more driver news has emerged, as Haas has confirmed that Formula 2 points leader Rafael Camara will make his F1 debut in 2027. The 21-year-old Brazilian will be replacing Esteban Ocon and is likely to team up with current driver Oliver Bearman once some contractual details are finalized.

This marks a swift rise for Camara, who won the F3 championship in 2025 and FRECA the year prior, and theoretically leaves only the Racing Bulls seats yet to be confirmed for 2027 outside of Haas.

Liam Lawson and Arvid Lindblad are currently competing for the Faenza team, both contributing to Racing Bulls leading the midfield with a total of 100 points. While it’s almost certain that rookie Lindblad, who is 11th with 38 points, will return next season, uncertainty remains around ninth-placed Lawson.

Such doubts shouldn’t exist: the 24-year-old Kiwi is in exceptional form, scoring points in all but five races. However, as with Red Bull, another young talent is in the pipeline, namely Camara’s F2 title rival Nikola Tsolov.

The Austrian team faces a decision: retain Lawson or give Tsolov a chance. The question remains: where does Lawson go from here? A return to Red Bull, where he began 2025, seems improbable given Isack Hadjar’s performance, while a long-term stay at Racing Bulls doesn’t appear to be a feasible option for any party.

Expect discussions around this topic this weekend. As it currently stands, Lawson is anticipated to remain for 2027, with 2028 potentially being the year he needs to seek a new team.

How many track limit violations this year?

Pierre Gasly, Alpine, Franco Colapinto, Alpine

“I’m going to place a pillow from the hotel under his backside so he can actually see the road,” remarked Mercedes chief Toto Wolff at the Singapore GP. This was in response to Antonelli exceeding track limits on four occasions, which theoretically could lead to a five-second penalty. However, the Italian avoided it due to brake issues causing one of the infractions.

Nonetheless, track limits have been a recurring challenge for Antonelli, and undoubtedly, they will be a significant topic of conversation this weekend. They always are at COTA, known for its extensive run-off areas and high-speed corners, with 32 laps being invalidated in last year’s race.

This figure exceeds most circuits on the calendar, ensuring it will be another point of discussion this weekend—especially during qualifying, where drivers tend to push the limits more than in any other session.