Liam Lawson's impressive performance is creating a dilemma for Red Bull as they look ahead to 2027.

Formula 2 title contender Nikola Tsolov has emerged as a strong candidate for the second seat at Racing Bulls, having notched an impressive six victories in the first 14 races of the 2026 season. Nevertheless, his qualifying speed hasn’t matched that of his top competitors, and he hasn’t reached the podium in the last 11 races.

Despite this, the 19-year-old Bulgarian trails championship leader Rafael Camara by just seven points – with Camara poised to make his F1 debut with Haas this weekend at the Brazil GP – keeping his championship hopes alive.

Meanwhile, with Arvid Lindblad’s commendable rookie season in F1, it seems that Lawson’s tenure at Faenza is nearing its conclusion. However, despite being outperformed by all his teammates so far – Yuki Tsunoda, Max Verstappen, Isack Hadjar – Lawson has outpaced Lindblad.

In qualifying, Lawson holds a 12-6 advantage in their head-to-head, with a 0.072s lead when excluding the atypical Melbourne session – that shifts to 9-5 and a 0.027s margin without sprint qualifying. Notably, he is averaging 0.141s quicker than his teammate during race conditions.

Over the past month, Lawson has shown himself to be not only competitive but also reliable. Since returning to Racing Bulls after his three-race stint at Red Bull, where he filled in for Isack Hadjar, he has not been outqualified on merit, averaging a lap time 0.257s faster.

In the last four grand prix, the New Zealander has amassed 24 points – more than Hadjar and George Russell. In contrast, Lindblad, affected by a grid penalty in Malaysia and a collision with Oscar Piastri in Mexico, has only managed to score a single point in that timeframe.

Liam Lawson, Racing Bulls

The forthcoming decision from Red Bull regarding 2027 may ultimately rest on a crucial question: do Lawson’s recent performances indicate that he might be worthy of another opportunity with the main team?

If the answer is affirmative, Tsolov may need to wait his turn – possibly in Super Formula, where several Red Bull juniors have competed after moving on from GP2/F2. This pathway previously opened doors for drivers like Pierre Gasly and, indeed, Lawson himself.

However, if Red Bull perceives no feasible route back to Milton Keynes for Lawson, no matter how compelling his current performances are, then retaining him at Racing Bulls may not be as logical, potentially allowing Tsolov to seize his opportunity.

With every points finish, Lawson faces the same inquiry concerning his future. In the post-race media session in Mexico, he was once again questioned about the uncertainty of his seat, despite the significant points gap to Lindblad.

“It’s obviously a massive shame, but it’s something that I’m just having to deal with at the moment,” he replied. “I’m obviously trying to do everything I can each time I get in the race car.”

Let’s see if that will suffice.

Additional reporting by Kevin Hermann