When will Mercedes secure the F1 world championship in 2026?

Is there a chance for Mercedes to win the F1 2026 world title at the US GP?

As F1 approaches the chequered flag in Austin next weekend, 215 points will still be available in the 2026 constructors’ championship.

This suggests that the United States Grand Prix might see McLaren and Red Bull fall out of the title race, as they would need to remain within 214 points after Austin.

This is due to Mercedes having nine more victories than both teams; thus, even if McLaren and Red Bull manage to reduce the gap to 215 in Texas, they would still be eliminated based on the countback of wins.

For this to happen, the reigning champions and Red Bull would need to outscore Mercedes by at least 25 and 32 points respectively, making Ferrari the only realistic contender to challenge the German team.

Furthermore, since the Scuderia will exit the United States still within 214 points of Mercedes, the constructors’ title will not be settled next weekend.

When could Mercedes secure the F1 2026 world title?

The worst-case scenario for Ferrari in Austin would be a double non-points finish while Mercedes achieves a 1-2 result, leaving a 177-point gap between the two.

If such an unlikely outcome unfolds, the German team would head to Mexico City with a chance to secure its ninth constructors’ title, tying with Williams on the all-time list, trailing only Ferrari (16) and McLaren (10).

Assuming Qatar and Abu Dhabi proceed, there are 172 points available over the four races following Mexico. Hence, if the aforementioned situation arises in Austin, Mercedes would need to ensure that Ferrari doesn’t outscore it by at least six points in Mexico.

However, Mercedes has yet to achieve a complete points haul from a grand prix while Ferrari scored none, as the table below illustrates—excluding sprint races, which are not part of the 2026 season.

From this analysis, Mercedes has consistently outscored Ferrari by an average of 7.6 points across the 17 grands prix. If this trend continues over the next two races, it would leave a gap of 149 points.

Thus, even for Mercedes to secure the title in Mexico poses a considerable challenge. The focus is likely to shift to the subsequent grand prix in Brazil, where the Silver Arrows could potentially be crowned world champions.